Middle Eastern Terrorism

In a key section of The Gambit, Prince Tariq of Saudi Arabia makes the observation, "didn't the fools understand that the terrorists might be in the palaces of Riyadh?" Thus emerges a key concept of the book: yes, the threat of Middle Eastern terrorist organizations to oil markets is very real, but what if the terrorists are urbane, sophisticated businessmen and/or princes within the House of Saud? Indeed, the conspiracy hatched by a small group to manipulate global oil prices, via judicious scheduling of terrorist events, contains the creme de la creme of investors; people who are pursuing the venture for broader goals in a calm, deliberate manner. That doesn't mean, necessarily, that they are not adverse to making a little money on the side.

While the theme of Middle Eastern terrorism is pervasive throughout The Gambit, the scheming group relies on the use of radical terrorist organizations more for propaganda hype than actual implementation of shocks to the global petroleum system. It is as if the conspirators do not trust the fanatical, murderous mobs for anything other than use of their names. There are several instances in The Gambit where fake announcements are put out in the names of these groups, each claiming a direct role in some strike, for the express purpose of their shock value to oil markets and to divert attention away from the real action. Part and parcel to these efforts is the indirect commentary that there always appears to be an indiscriminate media outlet available for the most outrageous "announcements". And then the Internet suffices nicely as well.

Terrorist financing is also a key point within the novel as one of the major characters, Michel Antoun, a wealthy Beirut banker, is caught in a personal crossfire whereby he is forced to launder contributions to the shady groups to protect himself and his family. He makes every effort to escape the trap closing in on him by embarking on his wild gambit for personal freedom, even though he is a member of the conspiracy underway. Hence, the name of the novel.

There are several petroleum-related attacks envisioned in the Middle East within the pages of The Gambit. In one, offshore Saudi oil platforms are originally targeted, to be executed by operatives within Tariq's own oilfield services company no less, but the mission has to be aborted due to a key intercept made by the American government. No problem, a target is hit in Russia instead. Nevertheless, a militant Middle Eastern group, the Islamic Freedom Front in Beirut, takes credit for the action via their blustery announcement. Of course, they were merely paid for the use of their name. When key leaders of the group are terminated later by the U.S., the real conspirators are completely intact and left to pursue other targets, later using a fake Middle Eastern terrorist organization to place on the airwaves at the appropriate time. Then, there is the attempt at piracy of an American oil supertanker at the very entrance to the Persian Gulf, at the Strait of Hormuz, with the intent of annihilating the crew and sending the oil-laden vessel to the ocean depths. That brazen attempt is foiled but oil prices skyrocket anyway.

Whereas The Gambit takes a nuanced approach in the application of terrorism to oil makets, the possibility of such is very real and particularly so in the Middle East. Most notable was an event where a group tied to Al Qaeda attempted to bomb key infrastructure at a major Saudi oil processing facility (Abqaiq) which handles approximately 5 million barrels of oil daily. There have been other groups threatening the flow of oil to America and its allies. The thesis of The Gambit, i.e. the vulnerability of oil markets to terrorism in various forms and how a particular conspiracy scenario plays out, remains very timely.

Back to Themes