American Presidential Election Campaign

The phrase "October surprise" attracted media attention first in 1980 when there was rampant speculation that the Carter administration would forge a last-minute breakthrough with the Khomanei regime in Tehran and secure release of the American hostages, just in time for the vote. That didn't happen as the Iranians miscalculated and released the hostages just after Reagan was sworn in as the next president. Has Tehran been more crafty, they might have secured four more years of an ineffective Carter for themselves.

Al Gore continued this game in 2000 against George W. Bush. Remember the news about Bush having a driving while intoxicated offense on his record? That surfaced only a few days before Election Day and almost cost Bush the election which many feel he didn't win anyway.

The theme of October/November surprise is mentioned numerous times in The Gambit as the presidential character wrestles with his dilemma. He must eliminate the threat posed by Michel Antoun, the Lebanese banker threatening oil commerce, who also possesses a dark secret haunting the President. What if the wily banker makes it all the way to Election Day? What if he whispers just once to an attentive press? The President, consumed in a tight race, pulls every play from his playbook to thwart or neutralize the man from Beirut.

A broader issue, however, is that the President's dark secret might not only cost him re-election, but also restricts his choices of proactive steps necessary to undermine the manipulation of oil prices underway. In this case, the American people are paying for the incumbent's little secret.But, as the man in the White House has rationalized, the country can suffer or he can suffer. It's an easy decision.

An intriguing notion in The Gambit is the President's creative use of the heroic example of Charles Sanders and the S.S. Alamo to forge a new identity for himself. The sickening example of the two men on the campaign trail reveals the worst of presidential campaign machinations. The American people fall for this ploy initially and the incumbent emerges with a small but growing lead heading toward the finish line. Even when advised of the truth about the oilman's treachery, the President suppresses the information in a vain attempt to just get past Election Day. Unbelievably,it almost works. 

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